A-Z of the Future > Exponential Growth
Moore’s Law states that computer processing power doubles every 18 months - something which has held true for approximately the past 50 years. It’s evidence of how change can occur at a sharp, multiplying rate, rather than in a linear step-by-step way.
With rapid progress expected in upcoming technological domains such as biotech and nanotech, exponential growth of technology and our societies will likely be something humans have to constantly adapt to - potentially altering humanity itself.
The technology we use in 10 years’ time may be approximately 1,000 times more powerful than it is today. At the same exponential rate, in 50 years’ time, it’ll be a quadrillion times more advanced than today. It is this anticipated rate of change that leads to a common assumption that machine intelligence will one day totally surpass human intelligence.
In a world of constant machine learning, where new technologies build upon old to progress at an ever faster rate, individuals and societies will need to adapt in how they exist to stay fit for the world they live in. Un-enhanced humans may struggle to compete in a world in which humans engineer their own evolution to adapt to this exponential change.
With so many complex factors to consider, predicting the future is difficult. Change is destined to come not at a linear rate, but exponentially, meaning the future may be dramatically more surprising than humans currently believe.